Central Texas is growing -- from abroad

I was very touched by the many of you who reached out to me to wish me the best on my move to the Philadelphia area. But in case it wasn't clear: I am going to continue to write the Austin Politics Newsletter and plan to make regular reporting trips to town. So please don't cancel your subscription!

In fact, the Philadelphia area offers excellent role models for keep tabs on the old neighborhood from afar: Skinny Joey Merlino, the reputed former head of the Philly Mafia, and George Norcross, the undisputed political boss of South Jersey, have largely operated from Florida for years.

Speaking of relocations...

The five-county Austin metro area is still growing at a steady clip and has moved up two spots to become America's 25th largest metro area, according to the most recent update from the U.S. Census Bureau.

What's really curious about the population growth is where it came from: mostly overseas.

Between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024, total net migration to the region was 41,926. Two-thirds of that –– 27,946 –– was international.

The previous year, the figures were the exact opposite. Total net migration was roughly 33,000 and roughly 22,000 of that came from elsewhere in the U.S.

Remember: net migration is not the total number of people who moved here, but rather the total who moved here minus the number who moved away. And migration is only a part of overall population growth –– there's also births.

Here's what the overall population growth picture looks like for the Austin MSA from 2020-24:

• Births: 122,074
• Deaths: 58,516
• Domestic migration: 132,535
• International migration: 71,200

Total population increase = 58,019

So growth in every category is continuing in the Austin MSA. But the same cannot be said about its epicenter, Travis County.

The data unfortunately does not offer specifics about the city of Austin proper –– only the metro area and county. So Travis County is the closest proxy we have right now.

What's happening in Travis County?

Here are the figures for domestic migration in the 2020-24 period for the five counties in the Austin MSA:

Bastrop: 15,381

Hays: 41,154

Williamson: 85,666

Caldwell: 5,261

Travis: -14,927

And yet, Travis County gained population because during the same time it gained 50,283 international arrivals.

Here's the full population tally for Travis County for 2020-24:

• Births: 67,733
• Deaths: 29,453
• Domestic migration: -14,927
• International migration: 50,238

Total population increase = 15,724

But...why?

What explains this? A memo from city Planning Director Laura Middleton-Pratt focusing on the metro area notes this is the lowest domestic migration in 15 years but offers no explanation for the corresponding increase in newcomers from abroad.