Some thoughts on the presidential election

For some time now, I've struggled to explain the concept of "government" to my daughter, who is now five-and-a-half. For the longest time she seemed to believe it was a single person. Last spring, on the way home from school, we stopped by City Hall and I showed her the vacant City Council chamber, which she found confusing: "Where's the government?" she asked.

Who the government is –– from the school board to the U.S. Senate –– and what exactly it does ... those are questions that many of us adults struggle to answer. But the one part that is deeply ingrained in the psyche of even the most disengaged American is that we pick our leaders in elections. And I think that is the one part that Louise, after observing yard signs pop up around the neighborhood and accompanying me to vote at the South Austin Rec Center, has wrapped her head around.

It's a principle that practically every candidate I've covered in my 15-year journalism career has respected. The only one I can think of who refused to accept the outcome of an election was batshit crazy District 4 City Council candidate Laura Pressley. Even kooky Don Zimmerman bitterly accepted his defeat.

That's what is so weird and disheartening about Trump's comeback tour. Why are so many of us willing to accept a man who –– before our very eyes –– violated the core principle of our democratic republic? The guy tried to steal an election! How can you possibly be willing to overlook that? Don't you understand that everything you love about this country –– its freedoms, its prosperity, its power –– is based on our leaders respecting the outcome of elections?

Tomorrow night thousands of candidates of all political stripes –– for school board, state legislature, U.S. Senate –– will graciously concede defeat if the vote doesn't go their way. The losers who claim that they really won will account for a vanishingly small percentage. It's just sad that that tiny group will likely not be made up exclusively of kooks running for obscure local offices, but will very likely include a major party nominee for president of the United States.

Indeed, the only solace I can find in the prospect of another Trump victory is that the loser in that case, Kamala Harris, will not lie about the outcome. If she loses, she will follow the example set by Clinton, Romney, McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, Bush, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, Ford, McGovern, Humphrey –– the list goes on –– in showing the country and the world that there can be dignity in defeat.

Will Watson avoid a runoff?

So I talked to some people at the South Austin Rec Center polling place the other week and then on Friday I went to Westminster Presbyterian in Tarrytown, hoping to get some insights into what more conservative voters are thinking. Tarrytown voted overwhelmingly for Watson two years ago over Celia Israel –– without it he would have lost.

It is uncanny how many voters in West Austin say they know Watson personally. "Because he goes to my church," said one woman when I asked why she was voting for the incumbent. "I've known him my whole life," said a young man.

In Tarrytown I was looking for signs of cracks in Watson's West Austin base due to his support of HOME and other land use changes. Well, I did encounter two former Watson voters who had defected over HOME, both older women, one Dem and one Republican. The former was voting for Kathie Tovo and the latter was voting for Jeff Bowen.

"Bowen –– but don't tell my friend Kirk Watson that," said the woman.

In South Austin I also encountered three former Watson supporters –– all Dems –– who had abandoned him over HOME.

But the bigger challenge for Watson may just be low-information liberal voters who will default against the "old white guy." It is well-established that a big chunk of Austin has an affinity for female candidates, particularly down ballot. A Hispanic surname can also be a big plus in down ballot races. Carmen Llanes Pulido's comparative youth and the vague (and unwarranted) perception that she is the most "progressive" candidate will also help.

Watson will definitely finish in first place, but the question is whether he will surpass 50%, thus avoiding a runoff.

If I had to bet, I would put my money on a runoff between Watson and Llanes Pulido. But I wouldn't place that bet with an enormous amount of confidence.

If you haven't voted yet, make sure to give yourself plenty of time to do so tomorrow. Election Day was a very sleepy affair four years ago because the pandemic prompted almost everybody to vote early or by mail, but that is not expected to be the case this year.

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