Where's the mayor's race at?
Does anyone have a shot at Watson?
Well, it's almost September. Campaign season is upon us.
I'm going to offer some stream of consciousness thoughts on the mayor's race.
Is this even a race?
Among those who showed up to Mayor Kirk Watson's campaign kickoff last night at the Speakeasy Ballroom were quite a few who voted against him two years ago in his race against Celia Israel. That's for two reasons, which are closely related:
- Watson has been much better on housing policy than expected
- Watson is the overwhelming favorite
To recap: Perhaps because Celia Israel so aggressively pursued the pro-housing YIMBY lane or perhaps because he was getting advice from dyed-in-the-wool NIMBYs, Watson two years ago ran a weird, waffling campaign that was a major turn off to under-60 liberals. Despite vastly outspending Israel, he came in second in the general election and only prevailed in the low turnout runoff by the skin of his teeth.
Watson correctly concluded that the best way to avoid a recap of the 2022 race was to simply cast aside his NIMBY constituency and go all-in on YIMBYism. As a result, many of those who supported Celia are now happily in the Watson camp. There's nothing wrong with flip-flopping as long as your new position is the right one.
It's not that I think most voters –– particularly in a presidential election –– are thinking about zoning when they pick a mayoral candidate. But it's the issue that matters most to those who are heavily engaged in city politics, and most likely to volunteer, contribute, post social media screeds, etc.
So, Watson has protected his YIMBY flank, which is a big deal. Does that make him invincible? No. As far as I see it, there are three potential sources of opposition to Watson:
