Will Watson avoid a runoff?

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Watson finishes with commanding lead ... but could still face a runoff

Mayor Kirk Watson finished last night way ahead of the pack. The last I heard he was at 50.01% –– or 31 votes above what he needs to avoid a runoff with second-place finisher, Carmen Llanes Pulido.

You might recall my prediction for the mayoral race the other day:

If I had to bet, I would put my money on a runoff between Watson and Llanes Pulido. But I wouldn't place that bet with an enormous amount of confidence. 

Well, there are apparently 3,200 provisional ballots and an undetermined amount of mail ballots yet to count, so my status as a local political savant is hanging on a thread.

Historically, it has been common for challengers who finish in a very distant second place to forgo their right to a runoff election. That's what Chris Riley did in his 2014 race against Kathie Tovo, for instance. We'll see if Llanes Pulido gets to make that choice or not.

Krista Laine ousts Mackenzie Kelly, making Council all-Dem again

Is District 6 cursed? All three Council members elected from the far northwestern district have failed to win reelection: Don Zimmerman, Jimmy Flannigan and, last night, Mackenzie Kelly.

The redrawing of Council districts in 2021 made D6 more Democratic and neighboring D10 more Republican. That alone may have cost Kelly the election.

It's worth noting that a bunch of Democrats, including legendary local political consultant David Butts, were in Kelly's corner strictly because she voted against key land use reforms, notably the HOME initiative. It was an interesting vignette to see so many self-proclaimed liberals supporting her, but it probably didn't do much in the race. Almost none of those people lived in District 6 and their grievances about development spring from a particular Central Austin ethos that doesn't translate to D6.

Kelly probably could have kept her seat if she had been a tad more strategic, perhaps joining the pro-housing majority on HOME (thereby reducing interest among YIMBYs in supporting/funding a challenger), joining the liberal majority on a couple hot-button votes on social issues, and not being photographed with the likes of Greg Abbott and Dan Patrick.

Duchen narrowly prevails over Ganguly in D10

Marc Duchen is the only housing/land use conservative to clearly prevail last night. He edged out Ashika Ganguly by 1.3% in the West Austin district.

Duchen replaces outgoing CM Alison Alter, whose endorsement he touted. Like Alter, Duchen is generally skeptical of efforts to liberalize land use rules to increase housing. Depending on what happens in District 7, he could be the only anti-reform vote left on Council now that Kelly is gone.

Ganguly performed better than many observers expected, given her youth (29) and Duchen's years of experience in local neighborhood activism. It may very well not be the last we hear from her.

Siegel and Bledsoe go to runoff in D7

Mike Siegel, who ran as a staunch pro-housing progressive, came in a strong first place in District 7, which Leslie Pool is vacating after 10 years on the dais. Gary Bledsoe, a late entrant to the race whose campaign is largely driven by opposition to HOME and opposition to the Council majority, came in second place and will face off against Siegel in the runoff.

Yes, Siegel finished way ahead of Bledsoe, but keep in mind that the runoff electorate will be much smaller and much older, which will likely help Bledsoe. It is not uncommon for a candidate with a substantial lead in the general to lose a runoff because the turnout dynamics are so different. The best example was in 2016, when Alison Alter handily defeated incumbent Sheri Gallo in the D10 runoff after a distant second place finish in the general.

Vela, Fuentes cruise to reelection

Chito Vela in D4 and Vanessa Fuentes in D2 coasted to reelection.

Vela finished with 58.5%, well ahead of second place finisher Monica Guzman, who captured 27.7% and several other challengers who finished in the single digits.

Fuentes got 85.6% of the vote in her race against a token opponent, Robert Reynolds.

Well, shit

Well, America rolled the dice on a senile thug. Fortunately he is term-limited and lacks the attention span and competence to execute his worst authoritarian fantasies. For starters, I think there will be free and fair midterm elections in 2026 and –– most likely –– the president's party will suffer defeats.

I am also heartened to see that, once again, voters in conservative states enshrined women's reproductive rights into law, underscoring that a significant segment of Trump's own base is pro-choice. There are certainly Christian Nationalist maniacs in the GOP, but there are others, including Trump, who know that nothing good comes from touching that issue.

That's not to say we should not be vigilant, but there is a key distinction between vigilance and hysteria. And you should be wary of those seeking to exploit your sadness and anger. Try to be strategic about how you spend your outrage and your money.

One of the best ways to spend your political energy is locally. You can make a real difference on the issues you care about and meet a lot of great friends in the process.

I'm deeply saddened to see so many of my compatriots vote for someone who is so flagrantly corrupt and hostile to American institutions and norms. It really depresses me that the first president my daughter will be meaningfully aware of is a common schoolyard bully.

I know that part of the problem comes from the information silos that have emerged in the wake of traditional media's decline. Supporters of liberal democracy need to get creative about how to talk to the tens of millions of Americans who do not engage with traditional news sources. Even though Hollywood is famously liberal, it's actually the right that has much more skillfully blended politics and entertainment, first in talk radio, then in cable news and now with podcasts and social media personalities. That was true even before the world's richest man turned an entire social media platform into a full-fledged propaganda machine.

I don't know what the solution is, but I do think that liberals need to think more long-term about winning the battle of ideas online rather than simply winning elections. There's a ton of liberals arguing with one another online, often over nonsensical purity tests that don't help anyone. I want liberal philanthropists to continue funding prestige nonprofit journalism, but it would also be good if some of them started thinking strategically and creatively about how to get content to people who don't seek out news and don't think of themselves as news consumers.

That's all I've got for today.